COVID-19

CDC’s new $200M Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics mistakenly frames modeling efforts as “forecasting.” It should be all about policy decision support.

2 Comments / COVID-19, Modeling Methods /

In an excellent article in New York Times Magazine, Jeneen Interlandi reported on her interviews with leaders of CDC’s new $200M Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics (CFA), and provides context regarding the challenges to infectious disease modeling in general. But Ms. Interlandi and the CFA leaders that were interviewed missed a really import point.

CDC’s new $200M Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics mistakenly frames modeling efforts as “forecasting.” It should be all about policy decision support. Read More »

The Post-COVID Wave and advice for business leaders navigating the pandemic and beyond: Dr. Ward interviewed by Gurmeet Judge, CEO of Encompass Business Technologies

Agent-based Models, COVID-19, Model-based Reporting /

Dr. Ward shares insights in an interview conducted by Gurmeet Judge, CEO of Encompass Business Techologies, an IT services company based in Vaughan, Ontario (suburb of Toronto) for the Encompass Blog. The hour long interview covers a wide range of topics of interest to leaders of both health care and non-health care organizations as they navigate through the COVID-19 pandemic and prepare to deal with the post-pandemic world, including the expected post-Covid wave in business and clinical activity, leadership strategies to build trust, talent and agility, and applying pandemic-style simulation analytics to business decisions.

The Post-COVID Wave and advice for business leaders navigating the pandemic and beyond: Dr. Ward interviewed by Gurmeet Judge, CEO of Encompass Business Technologies Read More »

Some masks are better than others, and simple hacks can lead to big improvements in protection of wearer

4 Comments / COVID-19 /

Motivated by duty to protect others, fear of infection and desire to comply with social and legal expectations, most people are complying with recommendations for mask-wearing in public indoor spaces and places where social distancing is difficult. But the definition of “mask” has grown to include a diverse collection of devices and garments, made of

Some masks are better than others, and simple hacks can lead to big improvements in protection of wearer Read More »

Defensible COVID-19 vaccine prioritization policy will require bravery and explicit principles and analytics. We offer example principles and propose a 6-step process.

1 Comment / Clinical Practice Guidelines and Protocols, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA), COVID-19, Dr. Ward's Methods Notes, Modeling Methods /

For almost a year, the weary public has been receiving a confusing mix of information and misinformation and witnessing an inconsistent and sometimes incoherent policy-making process regarding COVID-19 pandemic response. Leaders, journalists, neighbors, and wanna-be-expert social media influencers have all offered opinions about closing schools and businesses, mandatory mask wearing, testing, quarantine directives and other

Defensible COVID-19 vaccine prioritization policy will require bravery and explicit principles and analytics. We offer example principles and propose a 6-step process. Read More »

No, COVID statistics don’t look bad because the US does too much testing or because hospitals are attributing too many deaths to COVID

2 Comments / COVID-19 /

As I mentioned before, although I enjoy a good wager, my maximum bet is normally $1. Last week, my brother-in-law, the owner, operator and namesake of a popular restaurant, offered to bet a bottle of wine that the reason the COVID-19 statistics look bad in the US is because of high rates of testing and

No, COVID statistics don’t look bad because the US does too much testing or because hospitals are attributing too many deaths to COVID Read More »

University of Illinois is using campus-level COVID model, mandatory frequent saliva testing, an army of contact tracers and dynamic policy to keep the campus safe

COVID-19, Model-based Reporting /

In a recent article in Nature, the COVID19 response for the University of Illinois at Urbana campus was detailed. Although a spike in cases reported at the end of August, 2020 led to some national news coverage suggesting it was a failure, I nevertheless consider it an illustration of good practices that should be emulated

University of Illinois is using campus-level COVID model, mandatory frequent saliva testing, an army of contact tracers and dynamic policy to keep the campus safe Read More »

Graph labelled "COVID-19" Total Harm Index, showing optimization curve with minimum harm at a middle level of intensity of COVID-19 mitigation.

Introducing the Harm Index Minimization Strategy for COVID-19 pandemic response: Better than Flatten the Curve, Crush the Curve and Hammer and Dance strategies

7 Comments / Agent-based Models, COVID-19, Model-based Reporting, Modeling Methods /

In my last post, I described three helpful analogies — Forest Fire, Genie in the Bottle, and Trucker in the Mountains — that make it easier for leaders to wrap their heads around different COVID-19 pandemic response strategies. In this post, I will use those analogies to explain six COVID strategies: Then, I will explain

Introducing the Harm Index Minimization Strategy for COVID-19 pandemic response: Better than Flatten the Curve, Crush the Curve and Hammer and Dance strategies Read More »

Picture of Mountain Road with caption "Fore the next 1-3 years, we're truckers in the mountains."

A helpful analogy: Driving an 18-wheeler on a steep grade road from the top of Covid Susceptibility Mountain down to the Valley of Herd Immunity.

COVID-19 /

I recently had the opportunity to lead a series of discussions with leaders of government and health care organizations working to develop a COVID-19 pandemic strategy. I’ve found it very helpful to use analogies and metaphors to make it easier for people without formal epidemiology and public health training to wrap their heads around different

A helpful analogy: Driving an 18-wheeler on a steep grade road from the top of Covid Susceptibility Mountain down to the Valley of Herd Immunity. Read More »