Decision Analysis

U of Michigan study: Epic’s sepsis predictive model has “poor performance” due to low AUC, but reporting AUC is like building a bridge half way over a river. How to finish the job.

The Epic Sepsis Model (ESM) is a widely used proprietary predictive model that was described as having poor performance in a validation paper by Wong et al, citing low area under the ROC curve (AUC). But the evaluation failed to specify the intended protocol in which the ESM was intended to be used, and failed to include estimates of the outcomes of that protocol compared to usual care.

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Agent-based Models

The Post-COVID Wave and advice for business leaders navigating the pandemic and beyond: Dr. Ward interviewed by Gurmeet Judge, CEO of Encompass Business Technologies

Dr. Ward shares insights in an interview conducted by Gurmeet Judge, CEO of Encompass Business Techologies, an IT services company based in Vaughan, Ontario (suburb of Toronto) for the Encompass Blog. The hour long interview covers a wide range of topics of interest to leaders of both health care and non-health care organizations as they navigate through the COVID-19 pandemic and prepare to deal with the post-pandemic world, including the expected post-Covid wave in business and clinical activity, leadership strategies to build trust, talent and agility, and applying pandemic-style simulation analytics to business decisions.

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