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Clinical Practice Guidelines and Protocols

Defensible COVID-19 vaccine prioritization policy will require bravery and explicit principles and analytics. We offer example principles and propose a 6-step process.

For almost a year, the weary public has been receiving a confusing mix of information and misinformation and witnessing an inconsistent and sometimes incoherent policy-making

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Dr. Ward December 7, 2020 No Comments
Clinical Practice Guidelines and Protocols

Henry Ford observational study that shows 66% in-hospital mortality reduction from hydroxychloroquine seems to be guilty of “heroic propensity score” problem

During the 1990s, I served as the director of the Center for Clinical Effectiveness at the Henry Ford Health System in Detroit.  I was lucky

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Dr. Ward August 7, 2020 No Comments
Dr. Ward's Methods Notes

How to use and improve predictive models

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Dr. Ward April 21, 2017 No Comments
Dr. Ward's Methods Notes

Three ways to keep it simple — one of which is bad

“Keep it simple, stupid.”   The “K.I.S.S.” principle.  Generally a good idea, but not always. Consider three types of simplification: Leaning.  This is about getting rid

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Dr. Ward April 30, 2016 No Comments
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA)

Conceptualizing “over-treatment” waste: Don’t deny health economics

A Health Policy Brief published in Health Affairs on December 13, 2012 referenced an analysis published last April in JAMA regarding waste in health care.

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Dr. Ward December 23, 2012 No Comments
Care Planning

Don’t pave the cow paths: The challenge of re-conceptualizing health care processes

There is a popular adage for information technology professionals: “Don’t pave the cow paths.” I recently worked with a client from Texas, and they were

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Dr. Ward May 19, 2012 1 Comment
ACO Culture

To resolve conflicts, re-frame polar positions as optimization between undesirable extremes. But, sometimes there is no way to win.

In politics and professional life, achieving success requires the ability to resolve conflicts.  I’ve noticed that conflicts often become entrenched because the opposing parties both

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Dr. Ward February 18, 2012 3 Comments
Dr. Ward's Methods Notes

Telling a 46 year health care cost growth story in one graph

In a recent post to the Health Affairs Blog, Charles Roehrig, an economist who serves as VP and director of Altarum’s Center for Sustainable Health

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Dr. Ward November 12, 2011 2 Comments

So, is there any good use of O/E analysis? Yes. It’s called Benchmark Opportunity Analysis.

In last week’s post, I argued that observed over expected analysis (O/E) was commonly misused as a method for doing “level playing field” performance comparisons.

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Dr. Ward October 29, 2011 No Comments
Dr. Ward's Methods Notes

Observed over expected (O/E) analysis is commonly misapplied to performance comparisons. Please don’t.

A few years ago, I had a shocking and enlightening discussion about analytic methods with a group of epidemiologists and biostatisticians from Blue Cross Blue

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Dr. Ward October 10, 2011 9 Comments
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