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    • Curriculum Vitae of Richard E. Ward, MD, MBA
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Graph labelled "COVID-19" Total Harm Index, showing optimization curve with minimum harm at a middle level of intensity of COVID-19 mitigation.
Agent-based Models

Introducing the Harm Index Minimization Strategy for COVID-19 pandemic response: Better than Flatten the Curve, Crush the Curve and Hammer and Dance strategies

In my last post, I described three helpful analogies — Forest Fire, Genie in the Bottle, and Trucker in the Mountains — that make it

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Dr. Ward September 2, 2020 7 Comments
Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs)

If repealing Obamacare is off the table, can we turn attention to improving it through cost-effective clinical protocols?

Paul Krugman recently wrote an article in the New York Times posing the question: if repealing Obamacare is off the table (for now), should people

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Dr. Ward August 7, 2017 No Comments
ACO Reimbursement and Gain Sharing

New HIT ROI lit review is a methodologic tour de force, but misses the point

Recently, Jesdeep Bassi and Francis Lau of the University of Victoria (British Columbia) published in the Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association (JAMIA) another in

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Dr. Ward February 23, 2013 No Comments
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA)

Conceptualizing “over-treatment” waste: Don’t deny health economics

A Health Policy Brief published in Health Affairs on December 13, 2012 referenced an analysis published last April in JAMA regarding waste in health care.

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Dr. Ward December 23, 2012 No Comments
ACO Culture

To resolve conflicts, re-frame polar positions as optimization between undesirable extremes. But, sometimes there is no way to win.

In politics and professional life, achieving success requires the ability to resolve conflicts.  I’ve noticed that conflicts often become entrenched because the opposing parties both

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Dr. Ward February 18, 2012 3 Comments
Evaluation Methods

Slides for Dr. Ward’s presentation at 3rd Annual Predictive Modeling Congress for Health Plans, Orlando, Florida, January 31, 2012

  Click here for PDF copy of slides.

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Dr. Ward February 1, 2012 No Comments
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA)

The debate about what to maximize when selecting candidates for care management programs: Accuracy? ROI? Net Savings? Or Cost-Effectiveness?

When doing analysis, it is really important to clarify up front what it is you are actually trying to figure out.  This sounds so obvious.

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Dr. Ward September 17, 2011 No Comments
ACO Culture

Reports of the death of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in the U.S. may have been exaggerated: The ongoing case of Mammography

Guidelines for the use of mammograms to screen for breast cancer have been the topic of one of the fiercest and longest-running debates in medicine.

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Dr. Ward August 13, 2011 No Comments
Model-based Reporting

Dr. Ward to speak at 5th Annual Predictive Modeling Summit, November 8-9, 2011, Washington, DC

The 5th Annual Predictive Modeling Summit is described by conference organizers as the “leading forum on predictive analytics applied to key health care functions, settings

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Dr. Ward August 11, 2011 1 Comment

Dr. Ward’s Slides from AMGA ACO Learning Collaborative, Chicago, July 14, 2011

Presentation entitled “Developing the Economic Model for Success” from day 2 of the American Medical Group Association’s Accountable Care Organization Learning Collaborative, at the Swissotel

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Dr. Ward July 14, 2011 No Comments
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