Model-based Reporting

Model-Based Reporting is a methodology for establishing a routine reporting framework that shows not only counts and summary statistics of performance metrics, but also projects the future implications of actual performance through the lens of a model that includes planned performance and explicit assumptions.

The Post-COVID Wave and advice for business leaders navigating the pandemic and beyond: Dr. Ward interviewed by Gurmeet Judge, CEO of Encompass Business Technologies

Agent-based Models, COVID-19, Model-based Reporting /

Dr. Ward shares insights in an interview conducted by Gurmeet Judge, CEO of Encompass Business Techologies, an IT services company based in Vaughan, Ontario (suburb of Toronto) for the Encompass Blog. The hour long interview covers a wide range of topics of interest to leaders of both health care and non-health care organizations as they navigate through the COVID-19 pandemic and prepare to deal with the post-pandemic world, including the expected post-Covid wave in business and clinical activity, leadership strategies to build trust, talent and agility, and applying pandemic-style simulation analytics to business decisions.

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University of Illinois is using campus-level COVID model, mandatory frequent saliva testing, an army of contact tracers and dynamic policy to keep the campus safe

COVID-19, Model-based Reporting /

In a recent article in Nature, the COVID19 response for the University of Illinois at Urbana campus was detailed. Although a spike in cases reported at the end of August, 2020 led to some national news coverage suggesting it was a failure, I nevertheless consider it an illustration of good practices that should be emulated

University of Illinois is using campus-level COVID model, mandatory frequent saliva testing, an army of contact tracers and dynamic policy to keep the campus safe Read More »

Graph labelled "COVID-19" Total Harm Index, showing optimization curve with minimum harm at a middle level of intensity of COVID-19 mitigation.

Introducing the Harm Index Minimization Strategy for COVID-19 pandemic response: Better than Flatten the Curve, Crush the Curve and Hammer and Dance strategies

7 Comments / Agent-based Models, COVID-19, Model-based Reporting, Modeling Methods /

In my last post, I described three helpful analogies — Forest Fire, Genie in the Bottle, and Trucker in the Mountains — that make it easier for leaders to wrap their heads around different COVID-19 pandemic response strategies. In this post, I will use those analogies to explain six COVID strategies: Then, I will explain

Introducing the Harm Index Minimization Strategy for COVID-19 pandemic response: Better than Flatten the Curve, Crush the Curve and Hammer and Dance strategies Read More »

Dr. Ward to speak at 5th Annual Predictive Modeling Summit, November 8-9, 2011, Washington, DC

1 Comment / Model-based Reporting, Outcomes Monitoring, Risk Adjustment /

The 5th Annual Predictive Modeling Summit is described by conference organizers as the “leading forum on predictive analytics applied to key health care functions, settings and populations.” Dr. Ward will be giving a presentation entitled “Using Intervention Models and Predictive Models to Optimize Patient Selection for Care Management in ACOs” at 1pm on November 9,

Dr. Ward to speak at 5th Annual Predictive Modeling Summit, November 8-9, 2011, Washington, DC Read More »